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Nate Silver Predicted 71.4% Likelihood Frankee’s Uncles To Sweep Championship

Posted by ScooterJ May 10, 2017 Spring 2017, Week 16 View Score Sheets

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In an effort to fully understand the situation facing the league going into tonight, we asked renowned statistician Nate Silver to take a look at the numbers. Noting that Omaha Hambone would need to win an unpresidented [sic] FIVE games in a row to win the championship, and that Omaha Hambone lost three games to Frankee's Uncles the last time they faced each other, the analysis revealed a 71.4% chance of the Uncles sweeping the Hambone, and a 99.973% chance of an Uncle championship overall.

But, because November 8, 2016 exists, we all know exactly how this turned out...

To recap, Frankee's Uncles had a 4-game lead on Omaha Hambone going into tonight. So they had the championship all but wrapped up. The only way they could lose it would be for Hambone to sweep the series, then also win the never-before-triggered "5th game" tiebreaker. So, again because November made this sort of thing normal, Michael Mead and his 677 series led Omaha Hambone to a clean sweep. Carl Goetz topped the Uncles i their disatser with a 536 series. It should be noted that if you look at the scores and compare them to bowler averages, it would seem that Michael Mead was the only person on either team that truly wanted to win.

The resulting tie triggered our first use ever of an extra rolloff game rule. In that bonus game, Carl led the Uncles with a 213 while Michael Gordon led Hambone with a 223. A final total of 716 for the Uncles and 804 for Hambone ripped the trophy out of the hands of the stunned Uncles and sent it directly to Omaha.

This is the second title for Kody Karnes, and the first for Aaron Barber, Michael Gordon, and Michael Mead. Congrats, guys!

There was other bowling going on last night, too. On lanes 3 & 4: Led by Phil Schroeder and his 573 series, Holy Sandbaggers, Batman! got a sweep over Trump's Toupee, putting them just one win behind the teams that battled for the championship. Meanwhile, being led by might-as-well-have-been-a-real-bowler Jeremy Varnell and his 376 series wasn't enough to stop Trump's loss. (If only we could say that last bit outside this context!) Holy Sandbaggers, Batman! ends the season in 3rd place, while Trump's Toupee drops 1 spot to 5th.

On lanes 5 & 6: Terra Bowler hung out with their pals from Ebowla. Scott Murdock used a 497 series to sweep Ebowla, while Sean Miller tried to fight back with a 421 series. Terra Bowler climbs 1 spot in the standings to end in 4th place, while Ebowla drops 1 spot to 7th.

Finally, down on lanes 7 & 8: The half of FYWFK with scrotums showed up to face the only member of Suckeredusintoit without one. Technically this was a forfeit for Suckered, though JoAnne bowled for fun. Dan Crosby and his 411 series gave FYWFK a mostly-easy sweep, while JoAnne Gordon enjoyed her for-fun 305 series. FYWFK climbs 1 spot in the standings to end up in 6th place, while Suckeredusintoit had been mathematically doomed to 8th for the last several weeks.

Chantal poses with her ToC round 3 competition

The Tournament of Champions Championship Round was the oddest we have ever seen. Chantal Jacot was the only participant to make it past the second round, earning her the first place pot no matter how round 3 went. (She won that, too.) Ken Wilson and Phil Schroeder were left tied for second by virtue of being the only others who even made it past the first round. And this is where it gets messy. Tournament Rules break the tie using average power rank. This would make Phil the second place winner. However the brackets had a misprint in which the most-recent power ranks were listed rather than the average power ranks. Going by those numbers would make Ken the second place winner. In the spirit of fairness, we will leave it as a tie between Phil and Ken for second place and both will receive the full 2nd-place payout.

Bowlers entering The 200 Club for the very last time this season include: Aaron Barber (201), Bob Brunker (201), Carl Goetz (210,213), Ken M. Wilson (205), Michael Gordon (223), Michael Mead (267,235), and Phil Schroeder (200,215)

See you next week for 9-pin tap bowling and awards! We will present awards at 6:30 in the meeting room located next to the Pro Shop behind lane 48. (Please secure any valuables or bring them with you.)

THIS WEEK'S MVB


Dennis Cummings
Runner Up:
(See Posting)

  #1 POWER BOWLER


Michael Mead
Runner Up:
Phil Schroeder

  #1 H2H BOWLER


Michael Mead
Runner Up:
Phil Schroeder

  FROM THE GUTTER (GUTTER QUOTE)
"F-----------------------K!!!!!!"

Good Sportsmanship Award namesake Bob Brunker, on his team's championship meltdown.

EXPANDED STANDINGS
Pos. Team name Record Percent Total Pins Change
1 Omaha Hambone 44-20 .688 37,004 +1
2 Frankee's Uncles 44-20 .688 36,308 -1
3 Holy Sandbaggers, Batman! 43-21 .672 32,267 n/a
4 Terra Bowler 30-34 .469 25,658 +1
5 Trump's Toupee 28.5-35.5 .445 25,769 -1
6 FYWFK 26-38 .406 22,658 +1
7 Ebowla 24.5-39.5 .383 23,053 -1
8 Suckeredusintoit 16-48 .250 20,377 n/a

Top Individual Achievements for Week 16
Men's High Series Scratch Women's High Series Scratch
Michael Mead - 677
Kody Karnes - 585
Phil Schroeder - 573
Carl Goetz - 536
Ken Wilson - 531
Aaron Barber - 531 (t)
Freda Schroeder - 439
Chantal Jacot - 308
JoAnne Barber - 305
Men's High Series Handicap Women's High Series Handicap
Michael Mead - 715
Phil Schroeder - 647
Dan Crosby - 600
Scott Murdock - 593
Ben Spencer - 585
Kody Karnes - 585 (t)
Chantal Jacot - 586
Freda Schroeder - 554
JoAnne Barber - 540
Men's High Game Scratch Women's High Game Scratch
Michael Mead - 267
Phil Schroeder - 215
Carl Goetz - 210
Ken Wilson - 205
Jonathan Vigliaturo - 199
Freda Schroeder - 167
Chantal Jacot - 115
JoAnne Barber - 113
Men's High Game Handicap Women's High Game Handicap
Michael Mead - 279
Phil Schroeder - 239
Dan Crosby - 232
Scott Murdock - 221
Dennis Cummings - 220
Chantal Jacot - 207
Freda Schroeder - 205
JoAnne Barber - 191
Men's Pins Over Average Women's Pins Over Average
Michael Mead - 83
Dan Crosby - 48
Phil Schroeder - 46
Dennis Cummings - 40
Scott Murdock - 29
Chantal Jacot - 31
Freda Schroeder - 15
JoAnne Barber - 11


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